Republican presidential candidate former president Donald Trump (Image: AAP/Matt Rourke)
Republican presidential candidate former president Donald Trump (Image: AAP/Matt Rourke)

Every year in the budget papers, under “Statement 2” of Budget Paper no. 1, is an outlook for the international economy, including Treasury’s assessment of key risks globally. Last year, Treasury observed “the international outlook remains highly uncertain, with the balance of risks firmly tilted to the downside”.

That could apply doubly so in tomorrow’s 2024-25 budget, to be released on the same day as US President Joe Biden announces a new round of punitive tariffs against China. They will include a quadrupling of tariffs on electric vehicles — the Chinese product that Americans and Europeans are terrified of — as well as the maintenance of existing tariffs the Biden administration retained from the Trump administration, plus new tariffs on solar power equipment and medical equipment.