What they say and what they mean as the Dunkley by-election race heats up

The electorate of Dunkley in Melbourne’s southeast has swapped hands between the major parties several times since its creation in 1984, but had been held by the Liberals for 23 years until the late Peta Murphy, with the help of a redistribution, defied Scott Morrison’s miraculous 2019 victory to take the seat off Chris Crewther. Murphy then consolidated Labor’s hold in 2022 as part of the general swing against the Liberals.

All of this makes this weekend’s by-election genuinely hard to predict. With the narrative building that it could be hugely consequential for both party leaders, let’s break down some of the rhetoric of the campaign.

What they say about their chances

While neither can quite agree on what history tells us to expect on Saturday, the party leaders have a sort of unity ticket in what they mean.