A ‘hurting stalemate’: the cold, hard reality of Ukraine-Russia negotiations

With Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine grinding on, it appears negotiations may soon start to yield results.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine have indicated what they might be prepared to sacrifice to achieve a negotiated settlement, but a compromise between Russia’s original demands and Ukraine’s steadfast refusal is looking more likely.

Ukrainian negotiators began talks demanding an immediate ceasefire and then safe passage for civilians from conflict areas. Russia demanded Ukraine’s strategic neutrality, acceptance of Russian control of Crimea and formalisation of autonomy for the Donbass region.

So far, neither country has progressed those claims.

From a Russian perspective, a continued invasion is its central bargaining tool.